Now is NOT the Time to Fall in Love
Why Buying Technology Today is a Dangerous Bet
A friend of mine is building a house. He started a year ago, and it should be done in about 18 months. The question I ask everyone is: Should he have bought one of the best TVs on the market back when he started, just to hang it over his fireplace when the house is finished two and a half years later? Every single person I ask answers with an obvious “No – because there will be something much better for a fraction of the cost when the time is right.”
Some astute folks even add that if he absolutely needs a TV now, he should buy the cheapest thing he can and just throw it away when he moves. Smart.
That same logic applies to companies buying technology to “secure the future of their business.” But somehow, too many business leaders ignore this reality and lock themselves into long-term, costly commitments built on outdated technology.
The Trap: Investing in the Future With Yesterday’s Tech
When I started my previous company 17 years ago, I had already learned this lesson the hard way. My prior company suffered because we got locked into aging technology and approach. So, we fought hard to avoid that mistake. And for the most part, we did a good job. In a separate piece, I’ll share with you some of those things where we skated to where the puck was going.
But irony played a trick on me: my way of avoiding lock-in was by building cutting-edge solutions myself. And guess what? That became the thing I was emotionally and financially attached to. It took me nearly 12 years to realize I had made the same mistake, just on my own terms.
Technology has been moving quickly over the past 20 years, but that compared to today is like comparing a commercial jet to a SpaceX rocket (you can look up that speed differential on your own if you want). What is cutting-edge today will be obsolete tomorrow. Clinging to past investments, even if they were once the best in class, is a recipe for irrelevance.
The “New 20-Year-Old System” Delusion
A friend recently asked me if he should convert his business onto their “new 20-year-old system” because it’s far better than their current 45-year-old system. Let that sink in.
That 20-year-old system was built before:
- The iPhone existed
- Netflix was streaming (people still rented DVDs!)
- Google and AWS were household names
- Uber was even an idea
- George Dubba-U was in office
My response? “Go to the nearest Blockbuster, rent a copy of the new release *Revenge of the Sith*, and call me from your flip phone.”
Would you buy a 2005 Saab today and expect it to be your primary vehicle for the next 10 years?
Avoiding the Trap: What You Should Do
I’m not suggesting you go into full paralysis. But you do need a different mindset:
- If you do buy something, assume it will need to be replaced soon. Avoid financial or emotional lock-in. Build with flexibility in mind.
- Invest in modular, adaptable solutions. Make smaller bets instead of committing to massive “platforms” that will be obsolete in a few years.
- Avoid over-customization. Don’t “future-proof” tech through customization. It just makes you dependent on something that won’t last.
- Integrate only what you need today. Too many businesses automate every possible integration, which makes them resistant to change. Instead, project out just 3-6 months, automate the essentials, and reassess later.
- Declare everything as temporary. From the start, assume that what you build or buy today will be thrown away. Make governance and decision-making reflect this reality.
I get it. This is a hard sell to exec teams and boards. And, today’s tech vendors won’t like it either. But it’s the only way to avoid getting stuck while the world speeds ahead.
Even Cutting-Edge Tech is a Moving Target
Starting my new tech company, I built my backlog based on my latest vision. Then, just a few months later, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, and others released tech that both helped me refine the vision and cross things off the backlog. What I was prepared to spend a fortune building is now available for a fraction of the cost, and is better than what my team would have created.
That’s why I’ve instructed my developers to assume that every line of code they write today will likely be thrown away within a year.
The Warp Speed of Change
I don’t scare easily. I’ve lived through every major tech shift since the PC era. But right now? This is the most disruptive period I’ve ever seen. If you don’t believe me, listen to Ray Kurzweil: “If you think the last 10 years were fast, hold on, because we’re about to hit warp speed.”
We’re not talking about 15+ year-old tech getting outdated. We’re talking about products built in the past 6-12 months already being obsolete.
So, please, stop comparing that “new” 20-year-old system to your 40-year-old system and falling in love with it. Because if you do, you’re about to spend a fortune locking yourself into something that will only hold you back while the rest of the world moves forward at light speed.
So, my free advice is: Now is _not_the time to get locked in or to fall in love. Either: (1) wait it out, (2) find something that is evolving daily, or (3) make anything you do temporary until the time is right.
This piece of advice is just as much a reminder for me as it is for you!